Cyprus vs Latvia: Pileas Suspended for Matchday 4

CyprusCYP

Ioannis Kosti 70'
Marcus Edwards 90+4'

UEFA Nations League

2–1

Full Time

HT 0–0

GSP Stadium

Nicosia

LatviaLVA

Eduards Dašķevičs 57'

AI ForecastsGraded

Cyprus return to Nicosia off the back of a goalless stalemate in Latvia seven days ago, and their defensive shape has served them well in League C with two clean sheets from three outings. Latvia managed just one shot on target in that 0-0 draw and have scored only once across…

Match ResultHome Win56%

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Re-forecast the moment the match changes: every goal, every red card, and at half-time.

Match Stats

Top Stats

2.06xG0.73

61%Possession39%

19 (7)Shots (on target)12 (1)

3Big Chances Created1

Attacking Play

68Final Third Entries35

51Penalty Area Entries17

Possession & Passing

600 · 89%Passes (accuracy)385 · 84%

7Corners3

20Poss. Won — Def 3rd25

22Poss. Won — Mid 3rd8

Duels & Pressing

27 (42%)Duels Won37 (58%)

6 (38%)Aerial Duels Won10 (63%)

46Ball Recoveries48

14.3PPDA (Pressing)26.6

Defending & Discipline

0Saves5

10Fouls8

Cyprus vs Latvia: Pileas Suspended for Matchday 4

Published Sun 4 Oct

Cyprus meet Latvia in UEFA Nations League League C on Monday, 5 October 2026, at GSP Stadium in Nicosia, with the visitors rooted to the bottom of Group 2 after failing to win any of their opening three matches.

Latvia winless and bottom of Group 2

Latvia sit fourth in League C Group 2 with one point from three games, holding a minus-three goal difference after scoring once and conceding four. They opened their campaign with a 0-2 away defeat to Armenia on 25 September 2026, drew 0-0 at home against Cyprus on 28 September 2026, and fell 1-2 at home to Montenegro on 2 October 2026. On the road in this competition, Latvia have lost their only fixture by a 0-2 scoreline. Across their last three matches with chance data, they generated an average of 0.62 expected goals a game while conceding 1.40.

Cyprus defend clean home record without Pileas

Cyprus enter the fixture second in the group with four points from three matches, scoring three goals and conceding two. They began the section with a 1-2 defeat away at Montenegro on 25 September 2026, held Latvia to a 0-0 draw on 28 September 2026, and secured a 2-0 home victory against Armenia on 2 October 2026. That result gives Cyprus a clean home record in the competition of one win from one match, with two goals scored and zero conceded. They must adjust their defensive lineup for this meeting, as Kostas Pileas misses out through suspension. In terms of underlying performance, Cyprus have averaged 0.93 expected goals created and 1.46 expected goals allowed across their last three matches with chance data.

Our model expects a Cyprus win

Our model expects a Cyprus win. The home side have already proven solid at GSP Stadium, winning 2-0 in their only home match of the group against Armenia. Latvia have yet to take three points in Group 2, generating an average of just 0.62 expected goals per game while losing their solitary away fixture 0-2. Although Cyprus must cope with the absence of suspended defender Kostas Pileas and shared a 0-0 draw with Latvia in their previous meeting on 28 September 2026, their edge in chance creation and home form underpins the forecast.