Albania vs San Marino: Visitors Concede 14 in 3

AlbaniaALB

Kristjan Asllani 11', 90+3' (pen)

UEFA Nations League

2–1

Full Time

HT 1–0

Air Albania Stadium

Tirana

San MarinoSMR

Lorenzo Lazzari 66'

AI ForecastsGraded

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Albania welcome San Marino to Tirana for a Nations League C rematch just a week after a comfortable 3-0 away win, and the gulf between the sides is stark. The hosts have won both matches since their opening loss, keeping clean sheets in each, while San Marino arrive with three defeats from three, no goals scored, and 14 conceded. Albania’s attacking output of two goals per game and a deep squad built on a positive possession game should overwhelm a San Marino side that has never found the net in four previous meetings. Expect a one-sided contest where Albania can extend their dominant head-to-head record in front of a home crowd.

Match ResultHome Win92%

Albania have won all four previous meetings, including a 3-0 victory just a week ago, while San Marino are on a three-game losing streak without scoring.

Win or DrawHome or Draw97%

Albania have never dropped points to San Marino in four head-to-head matches, and the visitors have not avoided defeat in any of their last three outings.

Total Goals3 or more goals80%

San Marino’s three group games have all gone past 2.5 goals, with 14 conceded, and Albania put three past them in the reverse fixture.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Albania vs San Marino: Visitors Concede 14 in 3

Published Tue 6 Oct

Albania face San Marino in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at Air Albania Stadium in Tirana, meeting just one week after their previous encounter.

San Marino have conceded 14 unanswered goals

San Marino sit fourth in League C Group 1 with zero points from three fixtures, having conceded 14 goals without scoring. Their campaign opened with a 7-0 home defeat against Finland on 26 September 2026, followed by a 3-0 home loss to Albania on 29 September 2026 and a 4-0 away defeat against Belarus on 3 October 2026. Over those three fixtures, San Marino generated an average of 0.47 expected goals per match while conceding 2.44 expected goals per game. In their sole away outing in the group, they conceded four goals without reply.

Albania manage goalkeeper absence and three doubts

Albania occupy second place in League C Group 1 with six points from three matches and a goal difference of plus four. They opened with a 2-0 home victory against Belarus on 26 September 2026, then won 3-0 against San Marino on 29 September 2026, before suffering a 2-1 away defeat to Finland on 3 October 2026. Across their last three matches with chance data, the home side generated 1.74 expected goals per game and conceded 0.57.

The hosts will be without goalkeeper Etrit Berisha, who is suspended for the fixture. Three other players are listed as doubtful due to injury: goalkeeper Alen Sherri, midfielder Luis Hasa, and midfielder Qazim Laçi. Top scorer R. Manaj, who has two goals in all competitions this season, remains available in attack.

Our model firmly expects an Albania win

Our forecasting model firmly expects an Albania win. That assessment aligns with the recent 3-0 scoreline between these two teams on 29 September 2026 and Albania's home record in this competition, which stands at one win from one match with two goals scored and zero conceded. San Marino have yet to score in Group 1, while Albania allow only 0.57 expected goals per game.

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