Bahia vs Mirassol: Mirassol Missing Three Players

BahiaBAH

Luciano Juba 38' (pen)

Serie A

1–0

Full Time

HT 1–0

Arena Fonte Nova

Salvador, Bahia

Mirassol

AI ForecastsGraded

Bahia host Mirassol at the Fonte Nova as the clearly stronger side, sitting in the top six with a solid home record and a starting XI of far greater squad value. Rogério Ceni's team lose some bite with two starters out, but Mirassol have more problems: three first-choice players…

Match ResultHome Win56%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

3.15xG1.82

53%Possession47%

16 (2)Shots (on target)10 (2)

2Big Chances Created1

Attacking Play

1.06xG on Target0.17

1.44Expected Assists (xA)0.88

51Final Third Entries49

32Penalty Area Entries25

Possession & Passing

510 · 89%Passes (accuracy)457 · 88%

6Corners2

13Poss. Won — Def 3rd19

23Poss. Won — Mid 3rd18

Duels & Pressing

52 (53%)Duels Won46 (47%)

12 (43%)Aerial Duels Won16 (57%)

41Ball Recoveries42

12.4PPDA (Pressing)16.7

Defending & Discipline

2Saves1

13Fouls16

+0.17Goals Prevented+0.06

Bahia vs Mirassol: Mirassol Missing Three Players

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
5	Bahia	30	8	49
15	Mirassol	30	-10	33

Published Sun 11 Oct

Bahia meet Mirassol in Serie A Matchweek 30 on Sunday, 11 October 2026, at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador, Bahia, with the visiting side having managed just two away victories in league action all season.

Bahia aim to build on Arena Fonte Nova form

Bahia enter the weekend sixth in Serie A with 46 points from 29 fixtures, having scored 43 goals and conceded 36. While they arrive following consecutive away defeats—0-1 against Palmeiras on 9 October and 1-2 at Atletico Paranaense on 20 September—their home return offers firmer ground. In 14 home league games, Bahia have lost only twice, recording six wins and six draws while scoring 22 goals and conceding 14. Their attack is led by Luciano Juba, who has scored nine goals in all competitions this season. The home side must reshuffle their lineup, however, as Nicolás Acevedo serves a suspension and Léo Vieira remains sidelined through injury.

Mirassol travel with three absences

Mirassol sit 15th in the standings on 33 points after 29 matches, with a goal difference of minus nine. They have put together a four-match unbeaten run in Serie A, including a 1-1 draw at RB Bragantino on 7 October and a 2-0 victory over Botafogo on 19 September. Away from home, however, Mirassol have found results difficult to secure, winning two, drawing four, and losing eight of their 14 road fixtures while conceding 22 goals. The visitors also face selection issues: João Victor is suspended, while both José Aldo and Negueba are out injured. Top scorer Eduardo, who has six goals across all competitions this season, carries much of the attacking burden for a side conceding 1.84 expected goals per game over their last five matches.

Our model expects a Bahia win

Our model expects a Bahia win, driven largely by the stark difference in venue records and defensive underlying metrics. Bahia have generated 1.59 expected goals per game across their last five matches while allowing 1.19, contrasting with Mirassol conceding an average of 1.84 expected goals. Mirassol also hold the poorer away record with eight defeats from 14 outings, and Bahia won the earlier meeting this season 2-1 on 11 April 2026. Although Mirassol held Bahia to a 1-1 draw in April 2025 and took a 5-1 win in August 2025, Mirassol's three missing players and away defensive numbers tilt the balance towards the home side.