Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: Vitoria Winless in 14 Away Games

Sao PauloSAO

Jonathan Calleri 20', 70'

Serie A

2–1

Full Time

HT 1–1

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Sao Paulo

VitoriaVIT

Emmanuel Martínez 39'

AI ForecastsGraded

Sao Paulo host a Vitoria side that has not won away all season and has shipped more than two goals a game on its travels. The hosts have been far steadier at the Morumbis, winning eight of fourteen with only five goals conceded fewer than they score by a wide margin. Both sides…

Match ResultHome Win58%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

1.76xG0.77

54%Possession46%

21 (6)Shots (on target)12 (2)

3Big Chances Created2

Attacking Play

1.79xG on Target0.87

Possession & Passing

480 · 82%Passes (accuracy)405 · 81%

6Corners2

Duels & Pressing

52Duels Won47

20 (61%)Aerial Duels Won13 (39%)

Defending & Discipline

1Saves4

13Fouls13

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: Vitoria Winless in 14 Away Games

Published Sat 10 Oct

Sao Paulo face Vitoria in Serie A on 11 October 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Sao Paulo, with both clubs sitting tied on 36 points in mid-table.

Vitoria winless in 14 away league matches

Vitoria sit 12th in Serie A with 36 points from 29 matches, having scored 32 goals and conceded 42. While they entered this round following a 4-0 home victory over Chapecoense on 7 October, their travels tell a starkly different story. In 14 away fixtures in this competition, Vitoria have recorded zero wins, five draws, and nine defeats, conceding 30 goals while scoring only 10.

Sao Paulo, 11th on 36 points with a goal difference of minus one, have earned most of their return on home soil. At Estadio Do MorumBIS, they have compiled eight wins, three draws, and three defeats from 14 matches, scoring 22 goals and conceding 12.

Seventeen players sidelined across both squads

Both sides enter the match severely depleted. Sao Paulo are missing eight players through injury: Aurélio Buta, Danielzinho, Domingos Duarte, Iago, Lucas Moura, Nicolas, Rafael, and top scorer Luciano, who leads the club with nine goals in all competitions. Sao Paulo felt those absences recently, losing 2-0 away to Cruzeiro on 8 October and 2-1 at home to Santos on 2 October.

Vitoria have nine players unavailable. Diego Tarzia is out through suspension, while Anderson Pato, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Gabriel Baralhas, Nathan Mendes, Ramon, and Riccieli are sidelined with injuries. Top scorer Renê Sousa, who has scored nine goals in all competitions, remains available to lead an attack that generated 1.44 expected goals per game across their last five matches.

Vitoria won the last two meetings

Recent head-to-head encounters have gone the way of Vitoria. They won 2-0 against Sao Paulo on 11 April 2026 and claimed a 1-0 victory on 7 December 2025. Before that sequence, Sao Paulo had won three straight in this fixture, posting a 2-0 win on 9 August 2025, a 2-1 win on 25 August 2024, and a 3-1 victory on 5 May 2024.

Our model expects a Sao Paulo win

Our forecasting model expects a Sao Paulo win with medium confidence. Although Vitoria have won the last two meetings between the sides, their record of nine defeats and no victories in 14 away matches stands out. Even without Luciano and seven other injured squad members, Sao Paulo have eight wins from 14 league fixtures at home.