Coritiba vs Botafogo: Nine Goals Conceded in Two
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Coritiba play Botafogo in Serie A on Monday 12 October 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira in Curitiba, with the home side attempting to halt a severe defensive downturn after conceding nine goals in their last two matches.
Coritiba have conceded 14 goals across four matches
Coritiba enter Matchweek 30 following consecutive heavy defeats away from home, falling 0-4 at Fluminense on 9 October 2026 and 0-5 at Vasco da Gama on 19 September 2026. Across their last four league fixtures, they have conceded 14 times, having also drawn 3-3 with Atletico Paranaense and lost 1-2 to Mirassol. Over their last five matches with recorded chance data, Coritiba have allowed 2.54 expected goals per game while generating 1.37.
Those results have left Coritiba 10th in Serie A with 38 points from 29 games, carrying a goal difference of -10 after scoring 37 and conceding 47. At home, they have taken five wins, four draws, and five losses from 14 league fixtures, scoring 19 and allowing 19. Pedro Rocha remains their leading scorer across all competitions with eight goals.
Seven Botafogo players carry injury or suspension doubts
Botafogo travel with a depleted squad. Edenílson, Jordan Barrera, and Kaio are ruled out with injuries, while Tite is absent through suspension. Arthur Chaves, Vitinho, and Álvaro Montoro are also listed as doubtful because of injury issues. Coritiba have five confirmed absences of their own, with Bruno Melo suspended and Brian Ocampo, Jacy, Lucas Ronier, and Tiago all sidelined by injury.
Botafogo sit 13th in the table with 35 points from 29 games, having scored 42 and conceded 47. They have struggled away from home this season, posting four wins, two draws, and eight defeats in 14 road fixtures. Their attack is led by Danilo Santos, who has scored nine goals in all competitions, though Botafogo arrive on a two-match losing run after dropping points 1-2 to Vasco da Gama on 7 October 2026 and 0-2 at Mirassol on 19 September 2026.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Botafogo win
Our model leans narrowly towards an away win. While Botafogo have lost eight away league matches, they have conceded only 1.08 expected goals per game over their last five matches with chance data, compared to Coritiba's 2.54 allowed. The two clubs drew 2-2 in their reverse fixture on 12 April 2026, which followed a 1-1 draw at Estádio Couto Pereira in November 2023.
