Flamengo vs Fluminense

Flamengo play Fluminense in Serie A on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro, with 10 points separating the clubs at the upper end of the standings. Flamengo enter the round top of the table with 61 points from 29 matches, while Fluminense sit third on 51 points.

Fluminense missing nine-goal scorer John Kennedy

Fluminense enter the match without their top scorer John Kennedy, who has registered nine goals in all competitions this season. The visiting squad also carries confirmed absences for Germán Cano, Alisson, and Riquelme through injury, alongside a fitness doubt over Renê. Fluminense have recorded three wins, six draws, and five losses in their 14 away matches in Serie A, conceding 22 goals while scoring 20. Over their last five matches with chance data, they have generated 1.46 expected goals per game while surrendering 1.72.

Flamengo hold 10 home wins from 14 league fixtures

Flamengo have built their league lead on strong home form, recording 10 victories, three draws, and one loss from 14 matches at Estádio do Maracanã, scoring 28 goals and conceding 10. They are unbeaten across their past five games, following up consecutive Serie A wins over Mirassol, Remo, Corinthians, and RB Bragantino with a 2-2 draw away at Santos on 8 October 2026. In their last five fixtures with underlying metrics, Flamengo generated 2.18 expected goals per game and allowed 0.88. Leading scorer Pedro Guilherme holds 16 goals across all competitions, though the home team will be without the injured Ayrton Lucas, Evertton Araújo, and Giorgian De Arrascaeta, alongside suspended midfielder Jorginho.

Flamengo have won three of the last five meetings

Flamengo have won three of the past five meetings between the two teams. Their most recent clash on 12 April 2026 finished in a 2-1 Flamengo victory, adding to 1-0 wins for the club on 20 July 2025 and 23 June 2024. Fluminense took victories in the remaining two encounters during that period, winning 2-1 on 20 November 2025 and 2-0 on 17 October 2024.

Our model firmly expects a Flamengo win

Our model firmly expects a Flamengo win. That projection is grounded in Flamengo's 10 home wins from 14 league fixtures and their defensive stability, backed by an average of just 0.88 expected goals allowed over their last five matches. Fluminense arrive having won 4-0 against Coritiba on 9 October 2026 and 3-1 at Corinthians in September, but the loss of both John Kennedy and Germán Cano diminishes their attack against the league leaders.