Chapecoense vs Atletico Paranaense

Chapecoense face Atletico Paranaense in Serie A on Monday 12 October 2026 at Arena Condá in Chapecó, Santa Catarina, with 32 points separating the two clubs in the standings.

Chapecoense sit 20th with 57 goals conceded

Chapecoense enter the match bottom of Serie A in 20th place, holding 18 points from 28 matches with a -28 goal difference. Their defensive record is the leakiest in the division, having conceded 57 goals across 28 games. At Arena Condá, Chapecoense have won two, drawn five, and lost six of their 13 league fixtures, conceding 29 times.

The home side were beaten 4-0 away at Vitoria on 7 October 2026, following a 1-1 draw at Atlético Mineiro on 19 September 2026 and a 2-1 home loss to Internacional on 12 September 2026. Their attacking output remains modest, with top scorer Marcinho tallying three goals across all competitions this season. Selection options are further reduced by five absences: Fernando is out through suspension, while Heitor, Max, Rafael Carvalheira, and Robert are sidelined by injury.

Kevin Viveros leads an attack averaging 1.66 expected goals

Atletico Paranaense occupy fourth place in the table with 50 points from 29 matches, scoring 45 goals and conceding 34. Striker Kevin Viveros has scored 19 goals in all competitions this season, spearheading an attack that has generated 1.66 expected goals per match over their last five outings with chance data.

Recent fixtures have seen plenty of goals at both ends for the visitors. They drew 2-2 at home to Atlético Mineiro on 8 October 2026, beat Bahia 2-1 on 20 September 2026, and played out a 3-3 draw away at Coritiba on 12 September 2026. On the road in Serie A, Atletico Paranaense hold a record of five wins, three draws, and six defeats from 14 matches. They travel without Dantas and Gastón Benavídez due to injury, while Odair Hellmann is absent through suspension.

Atletico Paranaense won 2-0 in the reverse fixture

The previous meeting between the two sides came on 12 April 2026, when Atletico Paranaense secured a 2-0 victory over Chapecoense.

Our model expects an Atletico Paranaense win

Our model expects an Atletico Paranaense win, giving the call medium confidence. The call is supported by the 32-point difference between fourth and 20th, Kevin Viveros's 19-goal return against Chapecoense's league-high 57 goals conceded, and the five missing players for the hosts. However, Atletico Paranaense have won only five of their 14 away league matches this season and have conceded nine goals across their last four Serie A fixtures.