Vitoria vs Chapecoense: Nine Home Wins at Barradao

VitoriaVIT

Erick 18', 61'
Matheuzinho 53', 74'

Serie A

4–0

Full Time

HT 1–0

Barradao

Salvador

ChapecoenseCHA

AI ForecastsGraded

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Vitoria’s Barradão fortress has been built on defensive organisation, with nine clean sheets in fourteen home matches this season, but an injury crisis in the backline threatens to undermine it. Chapecoense arrive as the division’s bottom side, yet their recent away games have been open affairs — they have found the net in five of their last six on the road but have kept no clean sheet away all campaign. The last three meetings between these two have all produced two goals or fewer, and with Vitoria managing just 0.6 goals per game over their last five at home, this could become a tight, tactical tussle decided by a single mistake.

Match ResultHome Win56%

Win or DrawHome or Draw81%

Vitoria have lost only four times at home all season and face a side with the worst away record in the division. Even accounting for their own poor recent run, the hosts should have enough to avoid defeat.

Total Goals3 or more goals52%

Vitoria vs Chapecoense: Nine Home Wins at Barradao

Published Wed 7 Oct

Vitoria meet Chapecoense in Serie A on Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at Barradao in Salvador, with the home side defending a record of nine wins from 14 home league matches.

Nine home wins counter nine Vitoria injuries

Vitoria sit 13th in Serie A with 33 points from 28 matches, having scored 28 goals and conceded 42. While they lost 3-1 at home to Cruzeiro on 20 September 2026 and drew 2-2 away at Mirassol on 13 September 2026, their league form at Barradao shows nine wins, one draw, and four defeats from 14 games. Top scorer Renê Sousa leads the squad with nine goals in all competitions this season.

Squad availability presents an obstacle. Vitoria have eight players ruled out through injury: Anderson Pato, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Ignacio Laquintana, Nathan Mendes, Ramon, and Riccieli. Gabriel Baralhas remains doubtful with an injury.

Chapecoense hold one away victory in fourteen trips

Chapecoense remain 20th in the table with 18 points from 27 fixtures, conceding 53 goals and scoring 29. Their away campaign has produced one victory, four draws, and nine defeats from 14 fixtures, with 11 goals scored and 24 conceded.

Their recent league matches include a 1-1 away draw at Atlético Mineiro on 19 September 2026, a 2-1 home loss to Internacional on 12 September 2026, and a 2-1 away win against Corinthians on 6 September 2026. Marcinho is their top scorer with three goals across all competitions. The visitors travel without five injured players: Bruno Tubarão, Heitor, Max, Rafael Carvalheira, and Robert.

A 1-1 draw in April and contrasting chance quality

The previous meeting between these teams ended in a 1-1 draw on 5 April 2026. Across their last five matches with recorded chance data, Chapecoense created an average of 1.23 expected goals and conceded 1.29. Vitoria generated 1.00 expected goals per game while allowing 1.67 over their own five-game span.

Our model expects a Vitoria win

Our forecasting model expects a Vitoria win with medium confidence. That assessment rests primarily on venue disparity: Vitoria have won nine of their 14 home league fixtures, whereas Chapecoense have lost nine of 14 on their travels. Chapecoense's slightly superior recent expected goals balance and Vitoria's injury list present complications, but the visitors' defensive record of 53 goals allowed across 27 matches tilts the forecast toward the home side.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
12	Vitoria	30	-11	36
20	Chapecoense	29	-31	18

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
12	Vitoria	30	-11	36
20	Chapecoense	29	-31	18

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