Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II: Four Home Absentees
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Celta de Vigo II face Real Sociedad II in Segunda División on Saturday, 10 October 2026, at Municipal de Barreiro in Vigo. Both teams enter the ninth round of the season tied on eight points from their opening eight matches.
Celta de Vigo II missing four players amid winless run
Celta de Vigo II enter the weekend in 18th place having gone four matches without a league victory. Since their 2-0 away win at AD Ceuta FC on 5 September, they suffered a 4-0 home defeat against Eibar, a 2-0 away loss at Almeria, a 1-1 home draw with Sabadell, and a 3-2 away loss to Sporting Gijon on 4 October. Across their eight matches, they have scored 10 goals and conceded 14.
Squad availability presents an immediate hurdle for the home side. Andrés Antañón and Bernard Somuah are ruled out with injuries, while Anxo Rodriguez and Pablo Meixus are both unavailable through suspension. Top scorer Álvaro Marín, who has scored three goals in all competitions this season, will be required to lead an attack that generates an average of 1.40 expected goals per game while conceding 1.45.
Real Sociedad II bring stronger away record despite three defeats
Real Sociedad II sit 16th in the table, ahead of the hosts on goal difference after scoring 11 goals and conceding 13. However, their recent form mirrors that of Celta de Vigo II, having suffered three consecutive league losses: 1-0 against Mallorca on 19 September, 3-1 away to AD Ceuta FC on 26 September, and 3-2 at home to Granada CF on 4 October. The away side will also be without Arkaitz Mariezkurrena, who serves a suspension.
Despite the recent losing sequence, Real Sociedad II have performed better away from home than on their own pitch in the Segunda División. From four away fixtures, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and one defeat, scoring eight times and conceding seven. Top scorer Gorka Gorosabel matches Marín with three goals in all competitions, though the side has surrendered an average of 1.60 expected goals per match over their last five games.
Our model leans towards a Celta de Vigo II win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Celta de Vigo II win. While Celta de Vigo II generate more scoring chances than Real Sociedad II's 1.25 expected goals per game, four absences and a home record of one win from four matches at Municipal de Barreiro temper expectations against opponents who have earned seven points on the road.
