Türkiye vs Italy: Both Sides Seek First Group Points

TürkiyeTUR

Baris Alper Yilmaz 47'

UEFA Nations League

1–4

Full Time

HT 0–3

Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu

Bursa

ItalyITA

Alessandro Bastoni 9'
Davide Frattesi 22'
Michael Kayode 27'
Pio Esposito 50'

AI ForecastsGraded

Türkiye and Italy both suffered opening defeats in Group 1 and arrive in Bursa chasing a response, with the neutral venue likely to feel like a home fixture for the Crescent-Stars. Türkiye have struggled to convert territory into goals — three blanks in their last four outings —…

Match ResultHome Win37%

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Re-forecast the moment the match changes: every goal, every red card, and at half-time.

Match Stats

Top Stats

2.89xG2.28

54%Possession46%

15 (3)Shots (on target)14 (8)

2Big Chances Created1

Attacking Play

70Final Third Entries32

36Penalty Area Entries25

Possession & Passing

570 · –Passes (accuracy)497 · –

6Corners2

12Poss. Won — Def 3rd23

19Poss. Won — Mid 3rd16

Duels & Pressing

42 (54%)Duels Won36 (46%)

2 (25%)Aerial Duels Won6 (75%)

43Ball Recoveries48

15.1PPDA (Pressing)11.8

Defending & Discipline

4Saves2

12Fouls21

Türkiye vs Italy: Both Sides Seek First Group Points

Published Mon 28 Sept

Türkiye host Italy in UEFA Nations League Matchweek 2 on Monday 28 September 2026 at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Bursa, with both nations seeking their first points in Group 1 after opening defeats on 25 September.

Türkiye create chances despite opening defeat

Türkiye sit third in Group 1 following a 0-1 home defeat against France on 25 September 2026. Across their last four matches with chance data, Vincenzo Montella's side generated 1.91 expected goals per game while allowing 1.21. That attacking output produced a 3-2 victory over USA on 26 June 2026, though it followed earlier World Cup defeats against Paraguay (0-1 on 20 June 2026) and Australia (0-2 on 14 June 2026). Türkiye are without Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz due to injury, leaving Zeki Celik as the squad's sole Serie A representative.

Italy adjust after opening loss to Belgium

Italy sit fourth in Group 1 with zero points and a minus-two goal difference after starting their campaign with a 0-2 home loss against Belgium on 25 September 2026. Coach Roberto Mancini initially called up 34 players for his return fixtures, though Bryan Cristante withdrew due to injury and was replaced by Samuele Ricci. The visitors travel to Bursa having failed to score in their opening fixture, mirroring Türkiye's search for an initial goal in the group.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Türkiye win

Our model leans narrowly towards a Türkiye win, supported by the home side's underlying chance creation metrics. Türkiye averaged 1.91 expected goals per match over their last four tracked games compared to 1.21 allowed, presenting stronger underlying numbers than Italy showed during their 0-2 home defeat to Belgium on 25 September 2026. The narrow confidence reflects Türkiye's own home record in this competition, which stands at one loss from one match after the 0-1 reverse against France.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	France	4	5	10
2	Italy	4	3	7
3	Belgium	4	1	6
4	Türkiye	4	-9	0

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