Spain vs Croatia: Five Straight Wins for Spain

SpainESP

Lamine Yamal 2', 63'
Marc Pubill 31'
Nico Williams 89'

UEFA Nations League

4–1

Full Time

HT 2–1

Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Sevilla

CroatiaCRO

Dion Drena Beljo 28'

AI ForecastsGraded

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Spain arrive on the back of a dominant run, with eight wins from nine across all competitions and a defensive record that has yielded clean sheets in seven of those matches. Croatia’s recent form shows their attacking intent but also a vulnerability at the back, having conceded in four of their last five. Historically, Spain have controlled this fixture, scoring three or more in three of the last five meetings, and with the creativity of Álex Baena they have the tools to punish a Croatian defence that has shipped chances on the road. The key battle will be whether Croatia’s midfield can withstand Spain’s high press—if the hosts dictate the tempo early, it could be a long evening for the visitors.

Match ResultHome Win79%

Win or DrawHome or Draw93%

Spain have not lost in nine outings, winning eight, and their superior squad depth and control from midfield make an away victory extremely unlikely for a Croatia side that has lost half of its recent away fixtures.

Total Goals3 or more goals64%

Spain’s matches have gone above 2.5 goals in only 44% of recent outings, but Croatia’s away games see that figure at 75%, and the quality of Spain’s attack—creating over three big chances per game—points towards a match that surpasses the two-goal mark.

Spain vs Croatia: Five Straight Wins for Spain

Published Tue 29 Sept

Spain host Croatia in League A of the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in Sevilla. The home side enter the contest having won all five of their previous five matches across international competition.

Spain create over two expected goals a game

Spain opened their Group 3 campaign with a 3-2 victory away against England on 26 September 2026. That result followed four consecutive tournament victories in July 2026, defeating Portugal 1-0, Belgium 2-1, France 2-0, and Argentina 1-0. Over their last five fixtures with underlying data, Spain produced an average of 2.11 expected goals while conceding just 0.64.

Attacking output has been led by Mikel Oyarzabal, who has scored six goals in all competitions this season. The home squad also benefits from the return of Dean Huijsen and Fermin Lopez, though Pedro Porro withdrew from selection because of injury.

Croatia give up more chances than they generate

Croatia sit second in Group 3 following a 2-1 away victory against Czechia on 26 September 2026. Across their last five fixtures, Croatia have recorded three victories and two defeats, having beaten Panama 1-0 and Ghana 2-1 while losing 4-2 to England and 2-1 to Portugal.

Croatia's underlying chance data highlights defensive vulnerability. Over their past five matches with recorded figures, Croatia generated 0.88 expected goals per game while allowing 1.34 to opponents. While they earned three points in their opening away fixture in this Nations League group, they consistently conceded opportunities across that span.

Our model firmly expects a Spain win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Spain win. The prediction is supported by Spain's run of five consecutive victories and an expected goal differential of plus 1.47 per match. Croatia have conceded in three of their last five fixtures and surrendered more than one expected goal per game, giving the home side a pronounced statistical advantage in Sevilla.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Spain	4	7	12
2	England	4	11	9
3	Croatia	4	-10	3
4	Czechia	4	-8	0

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