Croatia vs Spain: Twelve Conceded in Three Games

CroatiaCRO

Ivan Perišić 17'
Sent off:Ivan Perišić 79'

UEFA Nations League

1–2

Full Time

HT 1–0

Stadion Poljud

Split

SpainESP

Mikel Merino 61', 88'

AI ForecastsGraded

Croatia's Nations League defence has been a bruising one, shipping 12 goals in three outings including a humiliating 7-0 home reverse to these same opponents only a week ago. Spain, by contrast, have been perfect, with Lamine Yamal in sensational form and the side yet to drop a…

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Match Stats

Top Stats

1.02xG1.15

28%Possession72%

10 (5)Shots (on target)10 (3)

2Big Chances Created3

Attacking Play

34Final Third Entries71

13Penalty Area Entries39

Possession & Passing

298 · 79%Passes (accuracy)778 · 90%

3Corners6

25Poss. Won — Def 3rd22

11Poss. Won — Mid 3rd23

Duels & Pressing

24 (42%)Duels Won33 (58%)

5 (39%)Aerial Duels Won8 (62%)

49Ball Recoveries52

22.2PPDA (Pressing)8.3

Defending & Discipline

1Saves4

12Fouls10

Croatia vs Spain: Twelve Conceded in Three Games

Published Tue 6 Oct

Croatia host Spain in UEFA Nations League League A on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at Stadion Poljud in Split, having conceded 11 goals across their past two group matches.

Croatia concede 12 goals in three group games

Croatia sit third in League A - Group 3 with three points from three matches and a goal difference of -9. After opening with a 2-1 away win against Czechia on 26 September 2026, they suffered a 4-1 defeat away to Spain on 29 September 2026 and a 7-0 home loss against England on 3 October 2026. Across their last five matches with recorded metrics, Croatia have produced an average of 1.10 expected goals per game while allowing 2.36.

Defensive depth remains depleted for this fixture. Both Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić are ruled out through injury, leaving the home side without two regular defenders after conceding seven goals without reply in their previous home appearance in the competition.

Spain average 2.10 expected goals per match

Spain lead Group 3 with nine points from three matches, having scored 10 goals and conceded four. The away side arrive on a five-match winning run in all competitions, following up their 2-1 and 2-0 World Cup victories in July 2026 with consecutive Nations League wins: 3-2 against England, 4-1 over Croatia, and 3-1 against Czechia on 3 October 2026.

Their underlying numbers mirror that dominance. Spain have generated 2.10 expected goals per game over their last five matches with chance data while surrendering 0.64. Mikel Oyarzabal leads their scoring charts with six goals in all competitions this season. The visitors travel with several injury issues: Nico Williams is ruled out, while Alejandro Grimaldo, Ferrán Torres, and Joan García are all listed as doubtful.

Our model firmly expects a Spain win

Our model firmly expects a Spain win. The visitors won the reverse meeting 4-1 on 29 September 2026, while Croatia enter having conceded 12 goals in three group fixtures. With Spain controlling chance quality by creating 2.10 expected goals per game to Croatia's 1.10, the gap in group performance supports the projection despite Spain's list of doubts.

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