Netherlands vs Serbia: Gakpo Among Five Absentees

NetherlandsNED

Teun Koopmeiners 31'
Joshua Zirkzee 71'

UEFA Nations League

2–1

Full Time

HT 1–1

Johan Cruijff ArenA

Amsterdam

SerbiaSRB

Mihajlo Cvetković 35'

AI ForecastsGraded

Match of the day · free full analysis

Netherlands welcome Serbia to Amsterdam knowing a win would cement their promotion hopes, but they are depleted in attack with Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey and Justin Kluivert all sidelined. Despite those absences, the hosts remain unbeaten in seven and beat Serbia 2-1 in Belgrade just a week ago. Serbia are anchored to the bottom of the group with three straight defeats, conceding two goals per game, and their last away trip ended in a 2-0 loss without scoring. The Dutch should control possession and territory, but their defensive lapses have seen them fail to keep a clean sheet in any of their last ten competitive outings, adding intrigue to an otherwise one-sided contest.

Match ResultHome Win81%

Netherlands are unbeaten in seven, have a comfortable win over Serbia last week, and despite key injuries, their home strength and Serbia's three-match losing streak with poor defensive numbers make a home victory highly likely.

Win or DrawHome or Draw94%

Netherlands have not lost a match across their last seven outings, claiming three wins and four draws, while Serbia have lost every group game so far, so the hosts are well placed to avoid defeat.

Total Goals3 or more goals69%

High-confidence forecasts have landed of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls.

Netherlands vs Serbia: Gakpo Among Five Absentees

Published Sun 4 Oct

Netherlands host Serbia in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, 4 October 2026 at Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam, with the visitors yet to collect a point in League A - Group 2.

Gakpo leads list of five Dutch injuries

The home team sit second in the group with five points from three matches, but they take the field without top scorer Cody Gakpo, who has scored four goals in all competitions this season and is sidelined through injury. Brian Brobbey, Donyell Malen, Justin Kluivert, and defender Jan Paul van Hecke are also out injured.

Netherlands enter the match following a 2-2 draw away at Greece on 1 October 2026, which came four days after a 2-1 win away at Serbia on 27 September 2026. Across their last five matches with chance data, the Dutch side have produced 1.84 expected goals per game while allowing 1.17 expected goals against.

Serbia arrive with three consecutive defeats

Serbia sit bottom of League A - Group 2 with zero points from three matches, having scored twice and conceded six times. Their campaign opened with a 2-1 home defeat against Greece on 24 September 2026, followed by the 2-1 loss to Netherlands three days later and a 2-0 defeat away at Germany on 1 October 2026.

The underlying numbers highlight their difficulties in containment. Across their last three matches with chance data, Serbia have allowed 3.02 expected goals per game while generating only 0.95 expected goals. In their only away match of the competition so far, they conceded two goals without scoring.

Our model firmly expects a Netherlands win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Netherlands win. Serbia have lost all three group fixtures and allow over three expected goals per match. While Netherlands must adapt without five injured players including Gakpo, their return of 1.84 expected goals created per game and their 2-1 head-to-head win in September support the call.

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