Greece vs Germany

Greece host Germany in the UEFA Nations League on Sunday, 4 October 2026 at Stadio Toumbas in Thessaloníki, entering the match top of League A Group 2 after beating the Germans 1-0 just seven days earlier.

Greece unbeaten and top of Group 2

Greece lead Group 2 with seven points from three matches, having scored five goals and conceded three. Their campaign began with a 2-1 win away at Serbia on 24 September 2026, followed by the 1-0 victory over Germany on 27 September 2026 and a 2-2 home draw against Netherlands on 1 October 2026. Across their last three matches with chance data, Greece have produced 1.40 expected goals per game while allowing 1.29. The home side enter this fixture without Christos Tzolis, who is ruled out through injury.

Germany respond after first defeat

Germany sit third in Group 2 with four points from three games following a 2-0 win over Serbia on 1 October 2026. That result followed a 1-1 draw away at Netherlands on 24 September 2026 and the 1-0 home defeat against Greece on 27 September 2026. Germany have averaged 1.73 expected goals created and 1.12 allowed across their last five matches with chance data. The visitors have squad issues to resolve, as Brajan Gruda and defender Nico Schlotterbeck are out with injuries, while top scorer Kai Havertz, who has three goals this season, remains doubtful with an injury sustained on international duty.

Our model expects a Germany win

Our forecasting model expects a Germany win with medium confidence. That call is supported by Germany's underlying metrics, generating 1.73 expected goals per game while restricting opponents to 1.12, alongside their recent 2-0 clean sheet against Serbia. Greece complicate that outlook after already defeating Germany 1-0 in this group and accumulating seven points from their opening three matches.