Italy vs Türkiye: Visitors Still On Zero Points

ItalyITA

Gianluca Scamacca 26'
Riccardo Calafiori 64'
Francesco Pio Esposito 87'

UEFA Nations League

3–1

Full Time

HT 1–0

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Bologna

TürkiyeTUR

Aral Şimşir 61'

AI ForecastsGraded

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Italy's Nations League campaign has been a mixed bag so far, with a win, a draw, and a defeat that leaves them needing a result in Bologna to keep pace at the top of Group 1. After shipping four goals in Istanbul barely a week ago, Türkiye's defence is in disarray — three straight losses and eight goals conceded tells its own story — and their attack has gone missing entirely on the road. The switch to a neutral venue inside the Dall'Ara does not gift the Turks a true away trip, but it strips the Azzurri of the full San Siro roar, making this less a cauldron and more a technical contest where Italy's superior midfield control and chance creation should eventually tell.

Match ResultHome Win67%

Italy's pressing structure and 45 goals conceded across Türkiye's last eight competitive matches point to a comfortable Azzurri night; Türkiye have lost all three Nations League outings and failed to score in both away fixtures.

Win or DrawHome or Draw85%

Italy avoided defeat in three of their last four, and even without home advantage their superior defensive organisation — conceding 1.3 per game versus Türkiye's 2.7 — makes a Turkish victory the outlier.

Total Goals3 or more goals63%

Italy's rolling big-chance creation sits at 1.33 per game while Türkiye's leaky backline has seen three of their four recent matches pass the 2.5-goal mark, so the evidence leans toward an open contest despite the neutral setting.

High-confidence forecasts have landed of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls.

Italy vs Türkiye: Visitors Still On Zero Points

Published Mon 5 Oct

Italy meet Türkiye in League A Matchday 4 of the UEFA Nations League on Monday, 5 October 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, seven days after defeating the visitors 4-1.

Türkiye remain bottom with eight goals conceded

Vincenzo Montella's side arrive in Bologna sitting fourth in League A - Group 1 with zero points from three fixtures and a minus-seven goal difference. Türkiye opened their campaign with a 1-0 loss to France on 25 September, suffered a 4-1 home defeat against Italy on 28 September, and fell 3-0 away to Belgium on 2 October. In their sole away fixture in this Nations League group, Türkiye conceded three goals without finding the net. Barış Alper Yılmaz leads their scoring chart with two goals across all competitions this season, yet the team has produced one goal in the group despite recording 1.91 expected goals per match over their last five games.

Italy recover ground behind A. Bastoni

Italy sit third in the group with four points from three games, holding a plus-one goal difference with five goals scored and four conceded. Roberto Mancini's team began their Nations League schedule with a 2-0 defeat to Belgium on 25 September, but responded with the 4-1 victory over Türkiye on 28 September before earning a 1-1 draw away at France on 2 October. Defender A. Bastoni leads Italy's scoring this season with two goals across all competitions. While Italy's only home fixture ended in the 2-0 loss to Belgium, they have generated 1.81 expected goals a game over their past three matches while conceding 1.98.

Our model firmly expects an Italy win

Our model firmly expects an Italy win on Monday. Türkiye have lost all three group matches by an aggregate score of 8-1, while Italy already earned a three-goal margin in the reverse meeting on 28 September. Although Italy allowed 1.98 expected goals per game over their past three outings and lost their lone home match to Belgium, Türkiye's run of three consecutive defeats without an away point keeps the expectation on the hosts.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	France	4	5	10
2	Italy	4	3	7
3	Belgium	4	1	6
4

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	France	4	5	10
2	Italy	4	3	7
3	Belgium	4	1	6
4

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