France vs Belgium: Three Consecutive French Wins

FranceFRA

Désiré Doué 77'
Rayan Cherki 81'
Michael Olise 88', 90+1'

UEFA Nations League

4–1

Full Time

HT 0–1

Stade de France

Saint-Denis

BelgiumBEL

Dodi Lukébakio 35'

AI ForecastsGraded

France and Belgium meet at the Stade de France with Group 1 supremacy on the line, and the tactical duel will be shaped by suspension-enforced absences on both sides. Belgium travel without the suspended Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, robbing their midfield of its creative…

Match ResultHome Win62%

6 more forecasts lockedSign in to see them

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Live ForecastBetaPRO

Re-forecast the moment the match changes: every goal, every red card, and at half-time.

Match Stats

Top Stats

1.95xG0.59

66%Possession34%

23 (8)Shots (on target)5 (2)

3Big Chances Created1

Attacking Play

75Final Third Entries36

44Penalty Area Entries12

Possession & Passing

692 · 90%Passes (accuracy)363 · 79%

9Corners2

19Poss. Won — Def 3rd29

28Poss. Won — Mid 3rd5

Duels & Pressing

38 (48%)Duels Won41 (52%)

10 (63%)Aerial Duels Won6 (38%)

53Ball Recoveries46

10.0PPDA (Pressing)19.8

Defending & Discipline

1Saves5

4Fouls8

France vs Belgium: Three Consecutive French Wins

Published Mon 5 Oct

France host Belgium in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 5 October 2026 at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, sitting one point clear at the top of League A Group 1.

France hold three straight wins over Belgium

France enter the match in first place with seven points from three matches, having scored three goals and conceded one. Belgium sit second with six points, bolstered by a 3-0 home victory against Türkiye on 2 October 2026 and a 2-0 win away to Italy on 25 September 2026. The only blemish on Belgium's group campaign came against France, who won 1-0 on 28 September 2026.

That result continued a clear head-to-head pattern. France have now won the last three encounters between the nations, following a 2-1 away victory on 14 October 2024 and a 2-0 home win on 9 September 2024. France followed up their recent win against Belgium with a 1-1 draw at home to Italy on 2 October 2026, leaving them with one draw from their sole home fixture in this competition.

Midfield suspensions disrupt both selections

Both squads face selection issues through disciplinary sanctions. Belgium travel without midfielders Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, who are both serving suspensions. That places extra responsibility on top scorer Romelu Lukaku, who has scored four goals across all competitions this season.

France face their own disciplinary and fitness problems. Defender Dayot Upamecano and midfielder Mattéo Guendouzi are ruled out by suspension, while Warren Zaïre-Emery misses out through injury. Top scorer Kylian Mbappé leads the French attack with 11 goals in all competitions this season.

Chance production figures show little separation between the sides. Over their last five matches with recorded data, Belgium generated 1.53 expected goals per game and conceded 1.39, while France created 1.36 and allowed 1.50.

Our model firmly expects a France win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a France win. The call draws on France's run of three consecutive victories against Belgium and their unbeaten start through three rounds in Group 1, even as suspensions alter both midfields.

Match Stats

Shot Map

Momentum

Match Events

Player Ratings

Lineups

Head to Head