Ukraine vs Hungary

Ukraine play Hungary in UEFA Nations League B Matchday 4 on Monday, 5 October 2026, at CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského in Trnava, ten days after Ukraine secured a 1-0 victory in their previous encounter.

Suspensions sideline Sikan, Matviyenko and Kerkez

Danylo Sikan scored the decisive goal when these teams met on 25 September 2026, but the forward misses this fixture due to suspension. Ukraine are also without defender Mykola Matviyenko through suspension, while full-back Vitaliy Mykolenko remains doubtful with an injury. Hungary arrive with defensive selection issues of their own: Miloš Kerkez is suspended, while Bendegúz Bolla and Damir Redzic are both ruled out through injury.

Hungary generate 1.48 expected goals but match Ukraine on points

Both sides sit level on 4 points from 3 matches in League B - Group 2. Ukraine hold second place despite a -2 goal difference, following their 1-0 victory over Hungary with a 0-0 draw away to Georgia on 28 September and a 3-0 home defeat against Northern Ireland on 2 October. In their solitary home match in this competition, Ukraine have conceded three goals without finding the net.

Hungary occupy third place with an even goal difference, having responded to their 1-0 defeat against Ukraine by drawing 0-0 away at Northern Ireland on 28 September and beating Georgia 1-0 on 2 October. Across their last three fixtures, Hungary created 1.48 expected goals per match while conceding 0.90, contrasting with Ukraine's return of 0.65 expected goals created and 1.38 allowed per game.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Ukraine win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Ukraine win. The earlier 1-0 result in the group gives Ukraine a direct head-to-head advantage, though the absence of goalscorer Sikan and defender Matviyenko complicates the task against a Hungary side that has allowed only one goal across three group matches.