Northern Ireland vs Georgia

Northern Ireland host Georgia in UEFA Nations League League B Matchday 4 on Monday, 5 October 2026 at Windsor Park in Belfast, having not conceded a single goal through their opening three matches.

Northern Ireland lead Group 2 without conceding

Northern Ireland sit first in League B - Group 2 with seven points from three games, scoring four times and conceding none. Their group schedule opened with a 1-0 away victory against Georgia on 25 September 2026, followed by a 0-0 draw at Windsor Park against Hungary on 28 September and a 3-0 away win over Ukraine on 2 October. C. Brown leads the squad with two goals this season across all competitions. Across their last three fixtures with chance data, Northern Ireland have averaged 1.17 expected goals created and 1.01 allowed per match. Defender Daniel Ballard is listed as doubtful due to injury.

Georgia remain scoreless after three rounds

Georgia arrive in Belfast fourth in League B - Group 2 with one point from three games, failing to score while conceding twice. Following their 1-0 home defeat against Northern Ireland on 25 September 2026, they drew 0-0 at home against Ukraine on 28 September before falling 1-0 away to Hungary on 2 October. Across their three matches with chance data, Georgia generated 1.00 expected goals per game while giving up 1.01. Midfielder Otar Kiteishvili is doubtful with an injury ahead of the match at Windsor Park.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Northern Ireland win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Northern Ireland win. Michael O'Neill's side beat Georgia 1-0 in September and have taken seven points from nine without conceding a goal. Georgia have not found the net in three group matches, though their chance creation rate of 1.00 expected goals per game matches Northern Ireland's 1.01 allowed. With Northern Ireland drawing their only home game in the group 0-0 and Daniel Ballard doubtful, the model keeps its confidence low.