Segunda División Matchweek 9 Review: Leaders Eibar Halted

Segunda División Matchweek 9 brought unexpected twists across the division, highlighted by Real Oviedo halting league leaders Eibar's seven-match winning run with a 3-1 victory and FC Andorra inflicting a first defeat of the season on second-placed Castellón. Across eleven fixtures, our forecasting model enjoyed a productive round overall, landing seven of eleven match result calls and ten of eleven win or draw calls, even as specific scorelines proved characteristically elusive.

How our forecasts did

Predicting exact scorelines remained the toughest test, where only one of the eleven projections landed: Eldense's 2-1 win over Córdoba. Half-time and full-time projections also struggled, with four of eleven calls grading correct. The model performed far better across wider match patterns. The win or draw calls led the way, with ten of eleven finding the mark, beaten only by Girona's 1-1 draw at Tenerife where a decisive winner was projected. The model also read the flow of scoring cleanly: eight of the eleven total goals projections landed. First team to score and both teams to score each delivered seven correct calls from eleven, matching the return of seven out of eleven correct match result projections.

Results

Saturday 10 October

AD Ceuta FC 1-2 Sabadell Sabadell edged a tight contest as projected, with the model correctly calling an away win, both teams finding the net, and Sabadell scoring first, though the three-goal total ran past the low-scoring forecast.

Eldense 2-1 Cordoba Eldense made home advantage count in Javi Calleja's early weeks, delivering on the model's low-confidence home win projection, both teams to score, more than 2.5 goals, and the exact 2-1 scoreline.

Celta de Vigo II 4-1 Real Sociedad II Celta de Vigo II converted their attacking form into a clear victory over their fellow reserve side at Barreiro. The projection correctly called the home win, over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, the opening goal, and a Celta lead at both intervals.

Sunday 11 October

FC Andorra 1-0 Castellón Castellón arrived second in the table and unbeaten across eight games with only three goals conceded, but Andorra produced the upset of the weekend. The model misjudged this completely, backing Castellón to win and both sides to score.

Almeria 3-0 Leganes Almeria extended their winning streak to six matches with a comfortable home display. The model correctly anticipated an Almeria win, over 2.5 goals, and Almeria opening the scoring, though Leganés failed to contribute a goal.

Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas Mallorca exploited Las Palmas' defensive vulnerabilities and the absence of Jesé and Sandro Ramírez to claim all three points at Son Moix. Projections for a home win, over 2.5 goals, both teams scoring, and Mallorca leading at half-time and full-time all landed.

Cadiz 0-1 Sporting Gijon Despite missing Juan Otero, Antonio Casas, and Nikita Iosifov, Sporting Gijón ground out an away win at the Nuevo Mirandilla. The model correctly foresaw fewer than 2.5 goals but missed the match result by favoring Cádiz on underlying chance numbers.

Monday 12 October

Valladolid 5-0 Albacete Valladolid swept aside bottom-club Albacete in the round's most emphatic scoreline. The model accurately forecasted the Valladolid win, over 2.5 goals, the opening goal, and a Valladolid lead at the break, missing only by expecting Albacete to score.

Burgos 0-1 Granada CF Burgos lost their unbeaten home record at El Plantío as Granada picked up a narrow away win. The model was wrong on the match outcome but correct that under 2.5 goals would feature and that at least one side would keep a clean sheet.

Oviedo 3-1 Eibar Oviedo put an end to Eibar's seven-game winning run at the Carlos Tartiere. The model had projected an Oviedo home win at low confidence alongside both teams scoring and Oviedo striking first, though the four-goal tally overran the cautious total goals projection.

Tenerife 1-1 Girona Tenerife kept things tight at home to earn a point against Girona. The model hit on under 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Girona grabbing the opening goal, but missed on Girona securing all three points.

What we got wrong

The round's most conspicuous failure came at FC Andorra, where Castellón suffered their first defeat of the season. Castellón had entered Matchweek 9 with the meanest defensive record in the division, having conceded just three goals in eight matches while Andorra languished near the bottom. The model placed too much faith in that defensive record holding firm away from home and expected Castellón's attack to find a way through. Instead, Andorra converted their chances and kept a clean sheet against the promotion chasers.

The other notable blind spot was Cádiz. The model favored the hosts based on underlying chance creation metrics running well ahead of their league standing, while Sporting Gijón had travel issues compounded by the absence of top scorer Juan Otero and Antonio Casas. Gijón proved far more ruthless with the limited opportunities they did create, leaving Cádiz with another home defeat.

Round summary

Matchweek 9 shook up the top of the Segunda División table. Eibar's defeat at Oviedo and Castellón's slip at Andorra compressed the promotion places, while Valladolid and Almeria maintained pressure with convincing, high-scoring home displays. At the other end, Albacete remain rooted to the bottom after conceding five, with the gap between the lower places and mid-table widening.

Segunda División Matchweek 9 Predictions: Castellón Road

Segunda División Matchweek 9 runs from 10 to 12 October 2026, featuring 11 fixtures across three days as the competition begins to take shape. With Eibar and Castellón setting the standard at the top of the table and the scrap at the bottom tightening, this round provides tests across the division. Our model has generated projections for the opening fixtures, while predictions for the remaining matches will appear on their respective match pages the day before kickoff.

The match of the round: FC Andorra vs Castellón

Sunday's meeting between FC Andorra and Castellón presents a clear contrast in defensive stability. Castellón arrive sitting second in the division with 20 points from eight matches, having compiled the best defensive record in the league with only three goals conceded all season. Unbeaten through eight rounds, they enter this fixture following a 1-1 draw with AD Ceuta FC and consecutive shutouts against Leganes and Tenerife. Ousmane Camara leads their scoring chart with four goals, though the visitors carry doubts over Fran Castillo and Ousmane Nana Camara, with Fabrizio Brignani already ruled out.

FC Andorra enter the contest in 20th place with seven points, having conceded 15 times already. While recent scorelines have proved challenging, including a 3-1 home defeat to Sporting Gijon before an away victory at Granada CF and a goalless draw at Sabadell, their underlying chance creation indicates they have generated better opportunities than their points total suggests. Forward Jordi Cano has produced four goals this season and remains their primary threat in attack.

Our model leans cautiously towards a Castellón win, though confidence in that match result is low given the parity of the division. The projection carries medium confidence that both teams will score and that the match will feature more than 2.5 goals, with the model offering a low-confidence exact scoreline forecast of a 2-1 away win for Castellón.