FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

FC Augsburg host Bayern München in the Bundesliga on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at WWK Arena in Augsburg, with the home side managing five confirmed injury absences.

Augsburg missing five players through injury

Augsburg enter Matchweek 5 without Faik Sakar, Noahkai Banks, Sima Suso, Steve Mounié, and Tim Breithaupt, who are all ruled out through injury, while Anton Kade is doubtful. The home side occupy 4th place in the table with 7 points from 4 games, holding a +5 goal difference after scoring 11 and conceding 6.

Their league results began with a 3-0 home win against FC Schalke 04 on 30 August 2026 and a 4-1 victory away at Eintracht Frankfurt on 6 September 2026. Augsburg then drew 2-2 at home against Bayer Leverkusen on 12 September 2026 before suffering a 2-3 defeat at Werder Bremen on 19 September 2026. Top scorer Michael Gregoritsch has 3 goals in all competitions this season, but Augsburg have allowed 2.08 expected goals per match over their last 4 outings while generating 1.71.

Bayern München averaging 2.93 expected goals

Bayern München sit 2nd in the Bundesliga standings with 10 points from 4 matches, having scored 14 goals and conceded 2. Their recent form includes a 7-0 home win over Union Berlin on 18 September 2026, a 2-1 away win at SV Elversberg on 13 September 2026, and a 5-0 victory against Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League on 10 September 2026.

Winger Michael Olise leads Bayern with 6 goals in all competitions this season. Across their last 5 fixtures with chance data, Bayern have averaged 2.93 expected goals created while conceding only 0.49 expected goals per game. Their only confirmed absentee for this trip is Jamal Musiala, who is out with an injury.

Head-to-head record favors Bayern despite January defeat

Augsburg won the most recent encounter between these clubs, taking a 2-1 victory on 24 January 2026. Prior to that result, Bayern München had won four straight meetings in this matchup. Bayern earned a 3-2 victory on 30 August 2025, won 3-1 on 4 April 2025, recorded a 3-0 victory on 22 November 2024, and claimed another 3-2 result on 27 January 2024.

Our model firmly expects a Bayern München win

Our model firmly expects a Bayern München win. Bayern have created 2.93 expected goals per game while allowing only 0.49 over their last five matches, contrasting sharply with an Augsburg defensive structure that has conceded 2.08 expected goals per game. While Augsburg proved they can upset the visitors with their 2-1 win in January 2026, the absence of five injured outfield players leaves the hosts short of depth against an attack that scored seven in its previous league fixture.