Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: Six Out for Hosts
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Union Berlin face SV Elversberg in the Bundesliga on Saturday, 10 October 2026, at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin, having conceded 17 goals across their opening four matches.
Union Berlin carry six defensive and attacking injuries
The home side sit 17th in the table with one point from four matches and a goal difference of -13. Their last outing ended in a 0-7 defeat away to Bayern München on 18 September 2026, which followed a 1-3 home defeat to FC Schalke 04 and a 0-4 loss away at Bayer Leverkusen. In two matches at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this campaign, Union Berlin have recorded one draw and one defeat, scoring four goals and conceding six.
Squad availability is heavily restricted. Six Union Berlin players are ruled out through injury: Andrej Ilić, Andrik Markgraf, Josip Juranović, Marvin Friedrich, Oliver Burke, and Stanley N'Soki. The side is allowing an average of 2.66 expected goals per match while creating 1.17. Tim Skarke leads the scoring chart for the hosts with two goals in all competitions.
Krattenmacher leads unbeaten Elversberg on the road
SV Elversberg enter Matchweek 5 in seventh place with seven points from four matches, having scored eight times and conceded seven. Away from home in the Bundesliga, they have earned one win and one draw from two fixtures, scoring four goals and conceding three. Their away run features a 4-3 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 5 September 2026 and a 0-0 draw at FC Schalke 04 on 20 September 2026.
Maurice Krattenmacher leads the visitor's attack as top scorer with three goals across all competitions. Elversberg average 1.32 expected goals created per game while conceding 1.96 expected goals against. Their injury list remains minimal, with only Tom Zimmerschied confirmed out with injury.
Our model leans narrowly towards an Union Berlin win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards an Union Berlin win. The call gives weight to home advantage at Stadion An der Alten Försterei against a newly arrived top-flight opponent, but the low confidence reflects serious structural concerns. Union Berlin have lost three consecutive league fixtures by a combined margin of 1-14 and are missing six players, while Elversberg have taken four points from their two away matches this season.
