AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell: Sabadell Seek First Away Win
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AD Ceuta FC play Sabadell in Segunda División on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta, with the visitors seeking their first away victory of the campaign.
Sabadell miss top scorer Nicholas Gioacchini
Sabadell sit 7th in the table with 13 points from 8 matches, but enter Matchweek 9 without top scorer Nicholas Gioacchini, who is out with an injury after scoring 3 goals in all competitions. The travelling side have recorded 3 draws and 1 defeat from 4 away matches in Segunda División, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 3 on their travels. Across their last 5 fixtures with chance metrics, Sabadell generated 1.72 expected goals per game while allowing 1.26, yet their road form remains winless following a 1-1 draw at Celta de Vigo II on 26 September and a 2-0 defeat at Mallorca on 13 September.
AD Ceuta FC unbeaten in three league matches
AD Ceuta FC occupy 21st place with 5 points from 8 fixtures, having scored 7 goals and conceded 18. Kenneth Obinna Mamah is sidelined through injury, but top scorer Carlos Hernández leads their attack with 4 goals across all competitions. The home side have steadied their form over the past fortnight, building a three-match unbeaten run that began with a 1-1 home draw against Valladolid on 20 September, continued with a 3-1 home win over Real Sociedad II on 26 September, and extended through a 1-1 away draw at Castellón on 4 October. At Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, AD Ceuta FC have registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in 4 matches, scoring 4 goals and conceding 6, while averaging 1.40 expected goals created and 1.42 conceded over their last 5 outings.
Our model leans towards a Sabadell win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Sabadell win. Sabadell hold the stronger chance metrics, generating 1.72 expected goals per match compared to 1.40 for AD Ceuta FC, and they sit eight points higher in the Segunda División standings. However, Sabadell's return of zero wins from 4 away games and the absence of Nicholas Gioacchini narrow the margin against an AD Ceuta FC side that has taken 5 points from their last 3 matches.
